Wednesday, December 31, 2014

LONDON (Reuters) - As a father who has told his son tooth fairy does not exist, Ben Bernanke must f


LONDON (Reuters) - As a father who has told his son tooth fairy does not exist, Ben Bernanke must find a way to relieve investors who feel betrayed as he told them that is also a fantasy to hope that it could be kept printing free money for ever more. Financial markets, to scale of course, knew deep down that the Federal Reserve would have to start to withdraw its extraordinary monetary stimulus once the US economy was out of the emergency ward. But bond yields have climbed and share prices have sagged globally since the Fed chairman to scale shocked investors on May 22 by saying the bank could take a step down 'in the pace of bond buying in the coming months. Bernanke has the opportunity to recalibrate expectations when briefing the media on Wednesday after a meeting of the policy-making panel of the central bank two-day. The Fed chief can not deny comments in the last month. But, given the size of the market selloff assets, is expected to show that the economy is still too poorly to scale to justify slowing the pace of bond buying, now 85000000000 $ per month, right away. And as for raising to scale interest rates from near zero, that day remains a distant. "The confusion to scale since May 22 will force them to make clarity a high priority at this upcoming meeting," said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies in New York. A TIMETABLE taper? To that end, McCarthy speculated that the Fed mapping its base-case starting date for reducing bond buying along with a preliminary list of the wind down, subject to the usual caveats on growth, inflation and financial markets. "The problem is they can not use a light switch They have to have discretion because nobody knows what the future bears, so they never give up their flexibility -. And they should not, "he said. Manufacturing surveys from New York and Philadelphia due this week, as well as a national survey of homebuilders, are unlikely to suggest the need for rapid tapering of the Fed's accommodative position. McCarthy reckons the economy is expanding at a rate of about 2 percent, but may fail unless accumulated list arise. Indeed, many economists expect the Fed to push down its central forecasts for 2013 growth and inflation. "On the whole, the conditions for self-sustaining recovery in place yet," said Douglas to scale Roberts, an economist with Standard Life in Edinburgh. "If anything, weak inflationary pressures will give a clear mandate to focus on economic growth in place again the Fed." G8 optimism, pessimism The tightening to scale in financial conditions PMI represented by lower prices and higher bond yields sharing in headwind extra for the global economy is still growing well below trend due to the effects of the financial crisis after large. But it can be expected that the Group of Eight leaders great powers, meeting in Northern Ireland on Monday and Tuesday, in order to promote confidence to scale through intensified the positive. The G8 communiqué was likely to reflect a "slightly better position in the global economy" than the previous year, according to a senior European official. Some word is active. Data provider Markit to scale purchasing managers' index in (PMI) for China on Thursday is likely to provide further evidence of a slowdown in the second-largest economy in the world. PMI is expected to have the euro zone edges higher in June, but it will still refer to shrinking to scale output in the 17-country bloc zone, which has been in recession for the past six quarters. to scale "The pace of decline has fallen. That is the best that can be said, "according to Jens Larsen, chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada European in London. Recent indicators are consistent with a modest recovery in either the third or fourth quarter, he said. "It's not much more than that. I'm not particularly to scale confident about the euro area. In the same way, I feel more comfortable that the euro area is heading south at a rate pretty quickly, and the chances of large-scale financial response from the ECB are now quite small, "said Larsen.
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